AFRICAN EXPRESS FLIGHT 711 : REASONS OF THE SHOOTING DOWN
FIRST CONCLUSIONS

By Laurent Le Bloa
May 25th,2020

1 THE FACTS
On May 4, 2020 an Embraer VC-97 Brasilia from the Kenyan company East African Express, flight AF711 from the city of Baidoah crashed near Berdaale airport ("at about 2200 feet MSL about 3 minutes prior to landing and about 3nm before the airport at approximately 15:45L" (1). The six occupants of the plane were killed in the crash. Aircraft was carrying medical equipment to fight the Coronavirus pandemic. Very soon information circulated that according to witnesses, the plane had been shot down by Ethiopian soldiers. The military quickly recognized the facts, but to date, the evidences regarding the course of events are contradictory. This crash occurred in a region and at the time of a major domestic political crisis, between the Federal Government of Somalia and the Federal States , coupled with a crisis between the countries of the region: Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya.
Determining the causes of the crash and interpreting them therefore have great political significance and importance for the stability of the entire Horn of Africa region.
(1) Https://www.aeroinside.com/item/14608/east-african-express-e120-at-berdale-on-may-4th-2020-aircraft-shot-down

2 THE WITNESSES
According to the initial testimony, the aircraft crashed after making one or more landing attempts and was reportedly hit by a shot. According to the testimonies, the aircraft was hampered either by the presence of animals on the runway or by a truck. As the aircraft presented for a new approach, a gunshot would have hit it and aircraft crashed near the airport. Pictures of the crash site indicate that, at the time of impact, the aircraft was controlled and that the pilot attempted an emergency landing.
The testimonies diverge on the origin of the shooting, giving three different types of weapon (2-1):
An accidental firing of a RPG
A shot from a ZU-23/2 gun mounted on a truck, a gun that can be used both as an anti-aircraft weapon or against land vehicles. The truck would have been positioned on the runway.
Missile fire from a portable Sa-7 ground-to-air system.
There was conflicting information that this was either an accidental shooting or a deliberate hostile act. Until the Ethiopian military authorities confirm the deliberate firing on the plane by justifying it with a suspicion of suicide bombing threat.
The possibility that the crash would result from an accidental RPG fire could be immediately ruled out. This type of weapon is not able to reach a target at a distance of 5 kilometers. On the other hand, a Sol-Air Defense system SA-7 or a ZU-23/2 cannon are both capable. Al Shabaab did not represent any air menca the ENDF had no reason to deploy ground-to-air weapon systems. The zu-23/2 instead is both an anti-aircraft cannon and a weapon against land vehicles.
(2-1) https://www.voanews.com/africa/sources-ethiopian-forces-somalia-shot-down-kenyan-plane
(“There was a technical vehicle mounted with a gun on where the plane was going to land. We thought it was going to collide into it,” Hassan said. After the missiles were fired, the plane burst into flames and crashed on the side of the airstrip, according to Hassan. His account was confirmed by a regional minister and an aviation official who both asked not to be identified for security reasons.)

3 THE ETHIOPIAN MILITARY VERSION
The Ethiopian Forces finally recognized having shot down the plane. According to the report of the commander of Sector III of the UAMISOM (3.1) the troops guarding the airport of Bardaale have shot down the plane because
-they were not informed of the flight
-the aircraft flying in the opposite direction to the usual landing cap of the Bardaale airstrip -the aircraft made several low-level crossings over the airport, which was interpreted as a possible suicide bombing attempt.
Those reasons motivated the decision to shoot down the aircraft.
(3.1) https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Ethiopian-troops-admit-shooting-down-Kenyan-plane/1056-5546914-s92sl7/index.html
“There was no information that the aircraft would be at Bardelle… the aircraft was flying out of usual site repeatedly closer to the ground,” ...“The troops suspected that the aircraft was a suicide attacker and seeking a target to attack. Due to the above reason, the African Express Type E-120 was shot down by our force.”

4 ANALYSIS
The version provided by the Commander of Sector III, officulous statements and testimonies make it possible to reconstruct the sequence of facts and determine the multiple causes of the tragedy.
4-1 The military was not notified of the arrival of the flight
The Sector III Commander stated that the military authorities in Bardaale had not been notified of the arrival of African Express flight 711. However, African Express Airways had received special authorizations from the Somali Civil Aviation to land at Berdaale. (4-1.1) This raises two questions:
-Did the Civil Aviation of Somalia properly warn the UAMISOM officials of Sector III?
-Were all Ethiopian military authorities informed? Some of the Ethiopian troops present in Berdaale are not present as UAMISOM troops. It was precisely these troops who opened fire.
According to the testimonies gathered on the spot Civilian authorities were present at the airport to take delivery of the aircraft’s equipment. However t the soldiers on guard at the airport, were surprised to see the arrival of the plane, one of the triggers of the tragedy. (4-1,2)
(4-1.1) https://twitter.com/AbdirizakOm/status/1258886173730242563?s=20

(4-1.2) https://www.voanews.com/africa/sources-ethiopian-forces-somalia-shot-down-kenyan-plane
“They were scared; it created fear,” says a source close to the Ethiopian soldiers. The soldier who fired the missile has been in Bardale “about 20 days,” according to the official.

4-2 the aircraft presented in an unusual manner and flew over the airport several times
This remark highlights key points for investigation:
The troops guarding the airport were obviously newly arrived in Somalia, and at Berdaale airport. They were unfamiliar with the operation of an airport in general (otherwise they would have known that the landing heading is determined according to the wind direction and that, depending on the conditions, the reverse heading is used). The lack of knowledge of aeronautical procedures indicates that these soldiers were not qualified and able to appreciate the normality or abnormality of a situation.
Then, according to some versions, the apprareil would have been hampered by the presence of a truck on the track, the one equipped with a ZU-23-2 to ensure the guard. When African Express 711 failed to land, it likely repeated its attempt, thinking that the truck that was blocking the airstrip would either clear it or understand that it had to clear it. This has been interpreted as hostile behaviour by militaries.
It is possible that Berdaale airport does not have all or not communication equipment and that it was not possible to establish contact between the ground and the pilot. The Civil Aviation investigation will answer this question.
This finally raises the question of the command of the troops to explain why a gun mounted truck had been placed on the runway:
Prevent an aircraft from landing
Lack of knowledge of a possible air activity
Disorganization and lack of communication between Ethiopian troops under UAMISOM mandate and those under national mandate.

5 A fatal sequence of errors or catastrophe was caused by deliberate or manipulation?
A string of errors and circumstances in a country in a state of war, where the attacks its almost daily can give a beginning of explanation. However the current political situation sees serious tensions between on one hand the Federal State and the Regional States, and on the other hand Kenya and Ethiopia. Those tensions were particularly acute in this part of the country, the Gedo. Those tensions naturally fed suspicions that the crash could have been premeditated, either by a deliberate act of the Ethiopian Armed Forces, by manipulating actors who may have contributed to the situation that led Ethiopian troops to shoot down the aircraft.

6 The political context and the play of regional actors.
Kenya and Ethiopia, two border countries, militarily intervened in Somalia without international consensus to protect their interests under the threat of the Al Shabaab group. To remain in Somalia foreign troops then passed (partially) under the mandate of UAMISOM. They remain means of pressure on the Somali government which has to face several political crises:
A domestic political crisis between the FGS and the Federal States
An international crisis, a dispute between the FGS in Kenya on the maritime border between the two countries in aera where are located oil exploration sectors.
Crisis between Kenya and Ethiopia,
They are not the only countries that use the different factions that divide Somalia as proxy.
6-1 The game of Kenya
-In its dispute with Somalia, Kenya took sides with Madoobe, who is the head of the South-West States, which is itself in conflict with the FGS. Madoobe, a former ally of the Ethiopians, has changed sides to gain support from Kenya, which wants to keep control of southern Somalia.
6-2 The game of Ethiopia
To protect its interests and guarantee its security, Ethiopia has long relied on alliances based on clans, militias. Maddobe, former head of Ras Kamboni Militia and Head of the South-West States has long been its ally. Among other things, SW States control the strategic port of Kismayo where Ethiopia deploys troops. Ethiopia also relied on the Sufi militia Ahlu-Sunna-Wa'al Jama to protect its eastern border (Ogaden, Hiraan, Mudug, Galmudug)
6-3 Recent developments
In recent years, Ethiopia has given priority to supporting the Federal Government and its President Mohamed Farmaajo, a Darod,, A clan that Ethiopians regularly rely on to influence Somalia. Ethiopia has reduced its support to its long-standing alllies.
Madoobe preferred to make alliance with the Kenyans to resist the Central Government.
The Ahlu Sunna Wa'al Jama Militia weakened by the withdrawal of part of the Ethiopian troops from the Galmudug region could not prevent the Central Government from "taking back" control of the region led by the Militia.
This support to the Central Government has resulted in "exchanges of services", political interactions, almost interference:
Somalia’s arrest in 2017 of QalbI Dagah, (a member of the ONLF, an independance movment of Ogaden, eastern region of Ethiopia ) and surrender to Ethiopia. (6-3.1)
the arrest by Ethiopian soldiers of Mukhtar Robow, whose electoral success in the regional elections overshadowed the Somali president. (6-3.2)

(6-3.1) https://midnimo.com/2017/08/31/somalia-somalia-confirmed-transferring-qalbi-dhagah/
(6-3.2) https://www.thesstar.com/ethiopian-forces-arrest-former-islamist-mukhtar-robow-in-a-bid-to-end-his-candidacy-for-regional-post/

7 How could a manipulation have been done?
A manipulation could have provoke hostile action against African Express flight 711. The internal struggle of the Somali government and the suspicions of infiltration of its Secret Services are regularly evoked when an action goes wrong. This was the case in 2016 when an American drone shot killed 22 militiamen at the Puntland border. Error of assessment on the ground or intelligence intentionally provided in a context of tension between two Somali Federal States?
The arrival of a senior official of the Somali Services shortly before the tragedy and the mention by the Ethiopian military of a threat of suicide bombing by means of an airplane raises the question whether information along these lines would have been provided and their relevance.
https://twitter.com/manderow/status/1257364467723182083?s=20

8 Reasons for a deliberate act?
A deliberate act of authority against Kenya? At the height of the electoral tensions in the South-West States, Ethiopia at the request of the Somali Central Government wanted to send reinforcements to Kismayo. The local authorities had opposed the arrival of an Ethiopian military aircraft and had prevented its landing by placing vehicles on the runway.
If this version may seem plausible, there is no evidence to back it up and the testimonies on the spot are more in the direction of the panic of the troops on the spot.

ADDENDA:
A new security incident renewed on 25 May 2020 confirms the nervousness of Ethiopian troops. Ethiopian troops in Qansah-dhere Bay region reportedly fired at aircraft carrying aid for WFP. Aricraft safely returned and landed at Mogadishu’s Adan Adde airport. The photos of bullet strikes on the side of the cabin and under the wing show that the fire was fired from below when the aircraft was at low altitude. These impacts contradict the version according to which Al Shabaab militants fired on the plane 5/7 kilometers from the airport. The aircraft was at an altitude beyond the reach of a light weapon.